Photo courtesy of boston.com
There has been a surprising amount of negativity surrounding Carl Crawford coming to the Red Sox. He is a difficult player to analyze quickly, as there is so much he does that isn’t immediately apparent in his triple slash line or homer numbers that makes him valuable. He’s one of the most exceptional defenders in the game, to the point that, despite playing in left, he is Gold Glove worthy (and we’re talking about the standards of myself and other statistically-inclined folks, not the people who actually vote on the award). He is an excellent baserunner, and not just due to his ability to steal a base with ease. There is a total package here, and it’s his combination of talents that make him worthy of the contract Boston offered him, and that’s why the outcry of “But he’s never hit 20 homers in a season before!” mean so little.
There are some concerns for Crawford, namely, how well his legs age over the length of the deal, as a considerable amount of his value is stored in them, both on the bases and in the field. The Sox would not have signed him if they didn’t have some idea of how he would age though–if his legs react to his mid-30s the same way Kenny Lofton’s did, then the Sox are in for a treat. Possibly of more concern is how Crawford’s game plays on grass instead of turf though. Baseball Prospectus colleague Steven Goldman has this covered in one of his recent Pinstriped Bible posts:
Now that Crawford is with the Red Sox, you can, just maybe, start subtracting from your expectations. Crawford is a better hitter on turf than grass. His .291/.332/.425 rates on natural surfaces aren’t spectacular for the position…Add in that Crawford is going to be hanging around from age 29 to age 36 and the Red Sox could really regret this deal, and that is even if Crawford doesn’t have some kind of catastrophic leg injury. All he has to do is lose a few leg hits a year and there goes the batting average that is at the heart of his game.
This is a valid concern, as the grounds crew at Fenway isn’t about to tear up the infield and replace it with turf to make Crawford’s life easier. But is it necessarily a bad thing? Crawford may just have to replace that production elsewhere, and I wouldn’t be writing that line if I didn’t think it were possible.
Tropicana and Fenway are two completely different parks in terms of design. The former uses an artificial surface and is very difficult for left-handed hitters to hit homers in if they aren’t dead-pull sluggers. If they utilize the power alley, then they are in trouble, as that area starts at 370 and, moving further back as the fence heads to right-center, ends at 404. Fenway has also been difficult on left-handed hitters who aren’t dead-pull, but thanks to the shift of the bullpen fences, that will change. Fenway won’t be a great park for lefties to hit for power at, thanks to right-center still being quite a ways from home plate, but the power alley where the actual bullpens reside will see more homers than before.
Carl Crawford is not the kind of hitter who hits the ball with severe pull to it. He is one who utilizes the power alley in right and right-center, which means that Fenway, in a rare occasion for the park, is going to increase the home run production of Crawford compared to his previous park. David Pinto covered this at Baseball Analytics earlier in the week (image taken from the linked piece):
The inner red portion of the image on the left are Crawford’s homers to the power alley in right field. You can see those in the hit chart on the right, and he has the same kind of massive sweet spot for triples, except those end up closer to right-center than right. David Ortiz hits triples when he puts a ball in the triangle–Carl Crawford is going to have time for an inside the park homer when he puts a ball in the same place, and, if he kept running after scoring, would probably end up on second before the throw came in.
Crawford is going to lose some batting average when his infield hits drop. Let’s say turf grants him an extra 10 infield hits a year, so now he will be a hitter who averages 170-175 hits a year instead of 180-185. That is a bit of a problem for someone who walks as little as Crawford and is dependent on their batting average, but remember how the triangle and right field are going to treat Crawford, and that the Green Monster out in left is going to turn some fly outs into doubles. He may lose some batting average, but the value of many of his hits–doubles turning into triples in the triangle, fly outs or doubles turning into homers at Fenway–will increase, meaning his slugging percentages will be higher.
Crawford is not going to be unproductive at Fenway because he no longer can lean on turf. He’s just going to be different. And remember, those infield hits are just one part of his game–we’re still talking about a fantastic baserunner that is one of the top defensive players in the league. His talents are varied, and, with the move to Boston, are going to have to vary some more. Hey, he might even cross that elusive 20 homer threshold everyone is so concerned about!
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There does seem to be a pattern to his isolated patience (BA – OPB). The numbers aren’t linear, but there is a noticeable improvement from ’03 (his first full season) to last year. From ’03-’05 he bounced between 0.028 and 0.035. His next three years were between 0.040 and 0.046. The last two years he’s posted 0.059 (’09) and 0.049 (’10). If he’s able to sustain that incremental growth he’ll soon reach a point where you’d have to call his patience above average (if it isn’t already – I don’t know the league average of hand).
If that happens and, like your analysis says, his power improves, we could be looking at a guy who posts a .290/.365/.500 slash line with excellent defense over the prime years of his contract. I think most Red Sox fans, myself included, would be pretty happy with that.
With Ellsbury leading off, Crawford will, in all liklihood, bat third in the RS daily lineup. With Gonzales and Youkilis batting behind him, the quality of pitches he sees each at bat will improve significantly. This should lead to an increase in batting average, slugging and runs batted in over his experience in Tampa Bay. Fully matured, and healthy, a line of .320-28-110 is well within his reach in 2011. Add to this, another 45 stolen bases and 120 runs scored and Mr. Crawford’s performance in Boston’s red and blue uniform will begin to take on Hall of Fame characteristics.
“With Gonzales and Youkilis batting behind him, the quality of pitches he sees each at bat will improve significantly.”
Wow. A tad hyperbolic, are we? I guess Longoria was a chump and Crawford suffered for it.
Oh, and it’s Gonzalez.
@Matt Don’t ever use isolated patience. It seems like a really good statistic at first, but it’s extremely misleading due to BA and OBP having different denominators (ABs and PAs, respectively). As a result, when BA drops, the difference between BA and OBP widens even if the walk rate (which is what you’re really trying to measure) remains the exact same. Quick example: you have 12 PAs with 3 walks and 3 hits. That’s a .500 OBP and a .333 BA, for a .167 IsoP. If, instead, one of your infield hits got hoovered up by Adrian Beltre, you’d have 3 walks and 2 hits, giving you a .417 OBP and a .222 BA, ultimately yielding a .195 IsoP. Yet your patience didn’t change one bit.
So yeah, use BB%. Which, fortunately, has also generally trended up for Crawford.
@hawkny Crawford has said that he’d be willing to lead off, which is, I’d guess, where Francona puts him. We’ll see, though, it’s a weird lineup to put into a batting order.
Thanks for the info, Ari. You’re right. BB% is better.
You’re welcome! I used to look at Isolated Discipline (which is I think the term, not IsoP like you and I were saying) myself until someone pointed out what a poor stat it is. It’s too bad it doesn’t “work”, because it’s nice to be able to eye ISO so easily.
P.S. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1201&position=OF Crawford’s BB% is there, and you can see its steady improvement, especially over the last three years.
Crawford is a traitor!!!!!
i think that crawford is going to continue to improve as a power hitter.
not that he is going to hit 40, but i think that 25-28 is very possible this year and that will make up for a few infield singles that he loses because of the natural grass in fenway opposed to the turf in tampa.
he has the left field wall to aim at all year and will develop a swing to use it effectively. also, the fences at the bullpens are coming in 12-15 feet as well. and, he may just hit 5-6 in yankee stadium!
these additional 8-10 HRs are also going to increase his total of RBIs and with the guys in the lineup hitting ahead of him he could go over 100 this year.
i predict, that with no injuries, that he comes close to replicating beltre’s offensive numbers of 2010.
Crawford’s said on several occasions that the turf makes his legs sore as the season progresses. I didn’t think he would stay with Tampa partly just for this reason. If you look at how his SB total diminishes as the year progresses mainly at Aug & Sept. in ’09 & ’10, I wonder how much this is reflected on his play in the field. Is it possible that playing on natural turf for a lot more games per year will have a positive affect on his legs through the course of the season, on how he is able to play, and the longivity of his career?
This is an EXCELLENT point, Christobol. One that anyone talking about the turf helping Crawford is ignoring.
I would suggest that playing on real grass will keep Crawfords’ legs healthier…
To listen to some fans, you’d think the Sox just signed Juan Pierre. Last season, Crawford had a higher slugging percentage than Mark Teixeira.
Crawford is becoming a better hitter and less of a slap-and-dash guy, as he matures. His natural swing is gap-to-gap, and I see a lot of balls off the Monster in his immediate future.
Fenway is a much better place to hit than the Trop, and he’ll be surrounded by much better hitters.
Of course, we’re only talking home games here.
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