It Gets Better, Offense Edition

by Sully on April 16, 2011

in Red Sox

Fangraphs rolled out Dan Szymborski’s in-season ZIPS projections this week. In case you think that Carl Crawford‘s -11 OPS+ is likely to hold, consider the following chart.

  2011 wOBA wOBA Rest of Year Difference
Crawford .162 .365 .203
Pedroia .426 .376 -.050
Gonzalez .333 .409 .076
Youkilis .388 .387 -.001
Ortiz .358 .374 .016
Drew .296 .360 .064
Salty .190 .297 .107
Ellsbury .284 .335 .051
Scutaro .260 .321 .061
Lowrie .490 .341 -.149
Cameron .133 .320 .187
Varitek .145 .314 .169
McDonald .309 .322 .013
    Average Difference .057


57 wOBA points is equal to the difference betweeen Albert Pujols and Vernon Wells in 2010, or Wells and Chone Figgins. Really folks, it does get better.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

BigNachos April 16, 2011 at 12:23 pm

Just keep the damn out machine out of the top spot of the lineup. Even when hitting well, he’s a lousy leadoff hitter, but in his current state he’s a giant vortex of suck.

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Matt Kory April 16, 2011 at 3:18 pm

I assume you’re referring to Carl Crawford who, when he’s going well is actually a fine lead off hitter. That said, I was so so so happy to see Lowrie both starting and in the leadoff spot today.

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BigNachos April 16, 2011 at 7:08 pm

Yeah, I thought the “giant vortex of suck” made it obvious. :-P

Even in the past 2 peak seasons, Crawford has posted below average walk rates and pitches seen per plate appearance, and is not much above the league average in OBP (on a team that will rank near the top in OBP). Those are two of the more important attributes I’d want in a lead-off hitter.

Since a lead-off hitter gets the most plate appearances, you want one of your best hitters up there. On this team, Crawford is easily behind Pedroia, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Ortiz as a hitter, and perhaps behind Drew and Lowrie as well.

He’s really much better off lower in the lineup with the higher OBP guys ahead of him. He’s a relatively ideal batter to have up with runners on base (fairly high contact rate, very low GIDP%, decent power), and his baserunning could help “manufacture” runs with the weaker hitters at the bottom of the order. Batting around 6th or 7th would minimize his flaws and emphasize his strengths as a batter, in my opinion.

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Mukesh November 24, 2012 at 5:24 am

I predict the Indians shall finsih at 82-80. You read it here first, folks!Also, the fact that the 2010 season started with a Yankees loss is all I need to know to ensure that this year will be a great one!a1Viva Los Doyers!

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